Labour’s ambitious pledge to build 1.5 million homes by the end of this parliament appears to be faltering.
Following the Spring Statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projected that just 1.3 million homes will be built by 2029-30, sparking fresh scrutiny of the Labour Government’s plan for homebuilding and whether they are on course to meet their housing target.
A BBC Politics Live panel discussion brought further doubts to light, as Labour’s Chief Secretary to the Treasury struggled to explain how they would bridge the shortfall.
What was the 1.5 million homes pledge?
During the last general election, Labour campaigned on a commitment to build 1.5 million homes over the course of the parliament, aiming to tackle the housing crisis and improve affordability.
The promise was a cornerstone of Labour’s economic strategy, underpinning its broader agenda to boost growth and increase homeownership.
However, as the latest OBR projections suggest, the government is now expected to fall around 200,000 homes short of its original goal.
What was said in the Spring Statement?
In her Spring Statement, Chancellor Rachel Reeves acknowledged that the 1.5 million target was slipping out of reach. She pointed to planning reforms and new housing policies, which she claimed would drive a surge in construction.
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“The OBR have today concluded that these reforms will permanently increase the level of real GDP by 0.2% by 2029-30, an additional £6.8 billion in our economy,” Reeves told MPs. “That is the biggest positive growth impact that the OBR have ever reflected in their forecast for a policy with no fiscal cost.”
She insisted that housebuilding would reach a 40-year high, with 305,000 homes expected to be built annually by the end of the forecast period.
However, the government’s own press release confirmed that the OBR expects only 1.3 million homes to be built, falling short of the 1.5 million target. The release framed the figures as progress, highlighting reforms such as the Planning and Infrastructure Bill, a long-term housing strategy, and an additional £2 billion investment in the Affordable Homes Programme.
‘More like 400,000 short than 200,000’ – experts question Labour’s maths
Following the Spring Statement, the BBC Politics Live panel, hosted by Jo Coburn, scrutinised Labour’s housebuilding target. Coburn pressed Labour’s Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Darren Jones, on the government’s homes target.
“Do you admit that the figures, the upgrading after the downgrade for this year, is pretty well completely reliant on building those 1.3 million homes?” Coburn asked.
“Well, partly, yeah,” Jones admitted.
“More than partly,” Coburn shot back.
Jones attempted to defend the government’s record: “The policy decisions that this government is taking will have a positive impact on the economy. That’s important because it shows we’re delivering on our growth mission. We’ve got to get on and build, baby, build.”
However, Coburn challenged him on the numbers: “They [the OBR] still say it’s not 1.5 million. They say within touching distance of 1.3 million. How are you going to do it?”
Jones reiterated Labour’s plans to train more tradespeople and push planning reforms through the National Planning Policy Framework but failed to provide specifics on how the shortfall would be addressed.
Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) then delivered a damning blow, pointing out that the 1.3 million figure applied to the entire UK, while Labour’s 1.5 million target was for England alone.
“This 1.3 million homes, the target is 1.5 million in England. That 1.3 million is in the UK. So it’s not quite as close touching distance as it might sound. I think we’re more like 400,000 short than 200,000 now, is that right?” Johnson asked.
Jones hesitated before conceding: “Uhh, probably. Look, we’ve got to go further. That’s a very good question but we always knew that was going to be a stretching target.”
Labour’s housing pledge, once a key pillar of its electoral platform, now appears increasingly unattainable. While government officials continue to insist that they are “within touching distance” of their target, scrutiny from experts and opposition voices suggests a significant shortfall remains.
The BBC Politics Live debate highlighted the growing concern that Labour may be quietly abandoning its 1.5 million homes commitment – without officially admitting defeat.
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